🚢 Tariffs shake up port-side warehouse markets
🇨🇦 Trade war jitters cool Canada’s appetite for U.S. real estate
📉 Office isn’t dead—just discounted
📚 Real estate exec looking to sharpen your modeling skills?

Data Viz of the Week: Dollar and Yields Diverge

Typically, the value of the US Dollar moves in sync with treasury yields:  As treasury yields rise, the dollar rises, and vice versa.

But since the announcement of tariffs on April 2nd, the dollar and yields have parted ways, with yields rising while the dollar falls. This is a troubling signal for the American economy and likely in part driven by international investors dumping dollars and re-allocating to other currencies now perceived to be safer. The US may be losing its reserve currency status sooner than anyone expected.

Upcoming Thesis Driven Courses & Classes

Are you a real estate executive that needs to brush on financial modeling? Our newest course, Fundamentals of Underwriting, provides a practical, hands-on program with interactive models, real-world case studies, and both Excel-based and AI-powered tools you’ll actually use.

We built it with an expert, Jay Dunn, who has underwritten and acquired billions of dollars of multifamily, industrial and office deals (and, more importantly, has trained legions of analysts from his investment banking days at Morgan Stanley and Gleacher & Company) across his 20-year career.

The course launches online on May 5th. Sign up here.

All Upcoming Courses

• April 7: Fundamentals of CRE (💻 Online): A bootcamp providing an insider’s view of “a day in the life” of key industry stakeholders, with real-world insights and applications - Sign up

• April 14: Selling Into Real Estate Owners (💻 Online): A bootcamp for people selling technology and products into the real estate industry - Sign up

• April 14: Fundamentals of Real Estate Entrepreneurship (💻 Online): A first-person POV simulation for aspiring RE entrepreneurs to learn to source, underwrite and finance a local real estate project - Sign up

• April 29 & 30: Fundamentals of Capital Raising (🗽Live in NYC): Insider’s guide to raising capital for real estate projects & platforms–from individuals, family offices and institutional investors - Sign up

• May 5 Fundamentals of Capital Raising (💻 Online): Insider’s guide to raising capital for real estate projects & platforms–from individuals, family offices and institutional investors - Sign up

Three Articles We Loved from Last Week

It’s not easy keeping up with everything. Here are three articles (+1 bonus) we loved from the past week that you may have missed:

1. (WSJ) Prized Seaside Warehouses to Bear Brunt of Tariff Plan

   Trump’s new tariffs could hit industrial properties near ports hardest, threatening values, development, and leasing in L.A., Houston, and Savannah. Inland hubs might benefit, but CRE investors are already pulling back, with Prologis stock down 10%.

2. (Business Insider) Canadian Investors Are Pulling Back From U.S. Real Estate

   Trump’s aggressive trade stance toward Canada is scaring off the U.S.’s biggest foreign real estate backers. With over $180B already invested, Canadian pension funds are starting to look to Europe instead.

3. (WSJ) Investors Are Tiptoeing Back Into the Office Market

   Office buyers are creeping back as pricing resets. Norges Bank ups its bets, and leasing is ticking up. Conversions and creative debt funds are gaining traction—opportunists are circling.

4. (The Times) Blackstone Expects to Benefit From Real Estate Recovery

   Blackstone deployed $25B into real estate in 2024, banking on a rebound. With fewer new builds and record AUM, it’s leaning in on rental housing, data centers, and trophy assets.

Developer of the Week: Capital Developments

The fastest skyline growth in North America?  It's not New York, Miami, or Austin. 

It's Toronto. And projects like Capital Development's 31-story, 379-unit Olive Residences, which topped out last week, are a key part of that. Olive Residences—which is ten miles outside of downtown Toronto—continues the Canadian city’s pattern of transit-oriented arterial high-rise development far outside the city center.

You can read more about Capital Developments on the Thesis Driven GP database here.

Know about a developer doing something cool that we should feature? Reach out to [email protected] with the tip!

—Brad and Paul