🧨 Zillow’s new policy ignites a listing war—agents revolt
🌊 Is the next housing crash driven by climate issues—and already underway?
📈 Tariffs spook CRE lenders—borrowing costs rise as spreads widen
📚 Real estate exec looking to sharpen your modeling skills?

Data Viz of the Week: Multifamily Deliveries Retreat

The apartment supply boom has peaked - and perhaps for a very long time.

Apartment deliveries in Q1 2025 retreated sharply from late 2024 highs. With less supply on the horizon, deliveries will likely continue falling throughout 2025 and 2026, paving the way for increasing absorption and - perhaps - the resumption of predictable rent growth.

With slowing population growth and higher i rates for the indefinite future, it may be some time before the US returns to 2024 levels of apartment deliveries. At a minimum, the current cycle is over.

Upcoming Thesis Driven Courses & Classes

Are you a real estate executive that needs to brush on financial modeling? Our newest course, Fundamentals of Underwriting, provides a practical, hands-on program with interactive models, real-world case studies, and both Excel-based and AI-powered tools you’ll actually use.

We built it with an expert, Jay Dunn, who has underwritten and acquired billions of dollars of multifamily, industrial and office deals (and, more importantly, has trained legions of analysts from his investment banking days at Morgan Stanley and Gleacher & Company) across his 20-year career.

The course launches online on May 5th. Sign up here.

All Upcoming Courses

• April 29 & 30: Fundamentals of Capital Raising (🗽Live in NYC): Insider’s guide to raising capital for real estate projects & platforms–from individuals, family offices and institutional investors - Sign up

• May 5 Fundamentals of Capital Raising (💻 Online): Insider’s guide to raising capital for real estate projects & platforms–from individuals, family offices and institutional investors - Sign up

• May 5: Fundamentals of Real Estate Entrepreneurship (💻 Online): A first-person POV simulation for aspiring RE entrepreneurs to learn to source, underwrite and finance a local real estate project - Sign up

• May 12: Fundamentals of CRE (💻 Online): A bootcamp providing an insider’s view of “a day in the life” of key industry stakeholders, with real-world insights and applications - Sign up

• May 19: Selling Into Real Estate Owners (💻 Online): A bootcamp for people selling technology and products into the real estate industry - Sign up

Three Articles We Loved from Last Week

It’s not easy keeping up with everything. Here are three articles (+1 bonus) we loved from the past week that you may have missed:

1. (Business Insider) Zillow’s Crackdown on “Exclusive” Listings Sparks Industry Backlash

   Zillow’s decision to ban agents from advertising off-market or “exclusive” inventory has caused a rift with brokerages like Compass, who argue it limits seller flexibility and adds confusion for buyers. Zillow says it’s about transparency and aligning with MLS rules, but others say it’s a power play that could change how listings are marketed.

2. (The Times) US real estate’s next crisis is climate change, warns Big Short guru

   David Burt, the investor who foresaw the 2008 housing crash, warns that climate-related risks could cause 20% of U.S. residential property to lose value. Rising insurance costs, regulatory pressures, and extreme weather events may severely impact housing markets that currently don’t price in climate exposure.

3. (CRE Daily) Credit Spreads Widen Amid Tariff Turmoil in CRE Lending

   Lenders are pulling back as tariffs roil markets, causing spreads to widen in CRE debt across asset classes. Borrowing costs are rising and risk appetite is shrinking, especially for transitional deals and construction loans. Lenders are favoring stabilized assets in core markets.

Developer of the Week: PowerHouse Data Centers

The data center boom continues, with Texas taking center stage and announcements of new data center projects coming on an almost-weekly basis.

And some of them are massive in scale. The largest Texas data center development - announced earlier this year - is a Grand Prarie project led by PowerHouse Data Centers which is expected to consume 1.8 gigawatts of power when fully operational.

You can read more about PowerHouse on the Thesis Driven GP database here.

Know about a developer doing something cool that we should feature? Reach out to [email protected] with the tip!

—Brad and Paul