💨 Chicago politics and real estate both seeking a second wind
🧨 Miami luxe developer’s $1bn project faces collapse
🤷‍♂️ San Francisco multifamily projects in limbo thanks to CA housing mandates
📚 September courses & workshops on AI, family office capital

Data Viz of the Week: Turnover’s Steady Decline

Across multifamily, residents are staying in their apartments longer. Over the past 10 years, churn rates have dropped from the low 50s to the low 40s, a remarkable change in renter behavior.

There's no single explanation for the shift, which is gradual and doesn't map neatly to apartment supply or mortgage rates, for instance. Housing economist Jay Parsons believes it is at least in part due to improved management and proptech creating better experiences for renters. Increasing median renter age is also likely a factor as well.

Upcoming Thesis Driven Courses & Classes

• September 1: Selling Into Real Estate Owners (💻 Online): A bootcamp for people selling technology and products into the real estate industry - Sign up

• ​September 3-4: Workshop: Raising Capital from Family Offices (💻 Online): A two-day interactive workshop for real estate sponsors, entrepreneurs & capital raisers looking to raise capital from family offices - Sign up

• September 10-11: Workshop: AI in Real Estate (💻 Online): A two-day interactive workshop for real estate owners, operators, and developers exploring how to use AI in the sector - Sign up

Three Articles We Loved from Last Week

It’s not easy keeping up with everything. Here are three articles we loved from the past week that you may have missed:

1. (The Real Deal) Chicago’s mayor and real estate looking to make comebacks

   As Mayor Brandon Johnson looks to regain momentum, Chicago’s CRE players are trying to bounce back too. Lenders are cautious, and Sterling Bay’s empty life sciences project spotlights ongoing vulnerability in the sector.

2. (WSJ) Michael Shvo’s Luxury Empire Cracks Under Pressure

   Major setbacks this week for high-end developer Michael Shvo, whose embattled Miami Beach project is now facing a forced sale. A PE firm’s $275 million bid threatens his vision, highlighting the challenges of ultra-luxury amid a real estate downturn.

3. (The Real Deal) San Francisco multifamily projects in limbo amid state-mandated goal

   SF’s push to meet housing goals is clashing with project economics; several multifamily developments are now stalled amid regulatory and zoning headwinds, despite demand.

Developer of the Week: Rockefeller Group

Atlanta has its newest skyscraper.

Developer Rockefeller Group’s 60‑story mixed‑use skyscraper at 1072 West Peachtree in Midtown Atlanta is now approaching the 50th floor, with about 11 stories left to climb. 

Standing at a projected 749 feet upon topping out, it will become Atlanta’s fifth tallest high‑rise. The tower includes over 350 luxury apartments, 224,000 ft² of Class A offices, expansive amenity decks, and street‑level dining—slated to complete before spring 2026, in time for the FIFA World Cup.

You can read more about Rockefeller on the Thesis Driven GP database here.

Know about a developer doing something cool? Reach out to [email protected] with the tip!

—Brad and Paul