The Thesis Driven TL;DR | Week of December 1st

Everything you need to know about real estate in one little email

🗽 “NYC office poised for biggest opportunity since GFC”
🎬 Hudson Pacific posts $136.5mm loss amid studio pain
🏗️ JLL Global CRE snapshot—logistics booming, offices staging a cautious comeback
📚 Workshops & courses: Real Estate Finance 101; AI for Real Estate; & Data Centers

Data Viz of the Week: Another Housing Bogeyman Ban Falls Flat

A year ago, San Francisco banned RealPage's rent-setting algorithm.  What happened next? Rent growth in the city outpaced the rest of the metro area.

While it's highly unlikely that banning RealPage caused rents to rise relative to the broader Bay Area, it certainly didn't help the situation. Whether it's banning Airbnb, regulating corporate homeownership, or blocking algorithmic rent setting, lawmakers in expensive markets love chasing the next housing bogeyman rather than addressing the fundamental lack of supply.

Upcoming Thesis Driven Courses & Classes

  • December 9-10: Workshop: AI in Real Estate (đź’» Online): ​​A two-day interactive workshop for owners, operators, and developers exploring how to use AI in the real estate sector - Sign up 

  • December 11-12: Workshop: How to Build & Fund Data Centers (with Danny English) (đź’» Online): A two-day interactive workshop designed for real estate investors, developers, and capital allocators who want to understand—and invest in—the data center asset class. - Sign up 

  • December 16-17: Workshop: Real Estate Finance 101 (đź’» Online): ​​A two-day interactive workshop designed for founders, operators, and professionals who want to finally understand how real estate finance actually works—and learn to speak the language of developers, investors, and property owners. - Sign up 

Three Articles We Loved from Last Week

It’s not easy keeping up with everything. Here are three articles we loved from the past week that you may have missed:

  1. (Bisnow) “NYC Office Development Poised For Biggest Opportunity Since GFC”, Landlords Say

    In New York City, a confluence of factors is setting up what many landlords describe as the biggest window for office-development upside since the Global Financial Crisis. With valuations down sharply, capital largely off sidelines, and potential conversion or re-tenanting deals rising, landlords see a rare chance to acquire or reposition underperforming buildings. This could draw renewed interest once financing loosens or demand picks up.

  2. (The Real Deal) Hudson Pacific posts $136.5mm loss amid studio pain

    West-Coast REIT Hudson Pacific Properties reported a $136.5 million Q3 loss, driven largely by poor studio-asset performance in L.A. However, strong office leasing activity in the Bay Area — including new AI-tenant deals — points to a bifurcated picture: studios shaky, but office demand possibly rebounding.

  3. (JLL) Global Real Estate Perspective, November 2025

    According to recent global data from one of the world’s leading real-estate services firms, demand is rising for industrial and logistics assets, retail is showing resilience, and office leasing globally is at its strongest in six years — even as regional variation remains wide.

Developer of the Week: Mahrouq Enterprises

Mahrouq Enterprises is aiming to remake Arlington, Texas's Division Street neighborhood, backed by a new Chapter 380 grant to complete key land acquisitions.

The incentives support a mixed-use plan that could include a food hall, multifamily housing, retail, restaurants, and structured parking. The firm is already building the 145-key Caravan Court hotel after securing $8 million in incentives last year, and it previously won a $7 million grant for keeping Ikon Technologies in Arlington. With multiple projects and significant city support, Sam Mahrouq has become a central force behind efforts to shift Division Street away from auto dealerships toward a modern mixed-use district.

You can read more about Mahrouq on the Thesis Driven GP database here.

Know about a developer doing something cool? Reach out to [email protected] with the tip!

Rendering of the new Caravan Court hotel

Investor of the Week: Willett Advisors

Willett Advisors is the investment office responsible for managing the endowment and philanthropic assets of Michael Bloomberg and Bloomberg Philanthropies—one of the most sophisticated, data-driven family-office allocators in the world. From its base in New York City, Willett invests across public markets, hedge funds, private equity, credit, and real assets, with a long-duration mandate that mirrors the multi-decade horizon of the Bloomberg philanthropic mission. The group is known for its disciplined, research-heavy approach and a deep emphasis on alignment with external managers.

Within real assets, Willett runs a global investment program that combines fund commitments, joint ventures, and co-investments—deploying most of its capital in the U.S. and Europe, with roughly a quarter through JV structures. Over the next 12 months, the team expects to allocate $100–$200 million into value-add and opportunistic strategies, prioritizing industrial/logistics and multifamily while maintaining a growing interest in data centers, senior housing, medical office, and student housing. The style is manager-first: they back blue-chip GPs with clear strategies, sophisticated reporting, and a proven ability to execute across cycles.

Willett is structure-agnostic but tends to favor LP commitments complemented by scalable co-investment rights rather than direct operating control. Their objective is steady exposure to durable, cash-flowing real assets that compound over long horizons and complement the organization’s philanthropic longevity. They consistently seek top-quartile managers, strong alignment, and opportunities where they can deepen relationships and deploy capital at scale alongside trusted partners.

Get more details on Willett Advisors, including executive contacts, deal activity, and investment preferences, on the CapitalStack database.

—Brad and Paul