♻️ How cities are turning old offices into stunning apartments, reshaping urban living
📉 Fed’s 2025 stress tests predict sharp declines in real estate values
🛍️ Shoppers feel ‘gut punch’ as Walmart confirms purchase of beloved mall
📚 Learn to develop a local real estate project, sell into owners, and raise capital

Data Viz of the Week: Office-to-Resi Conversions Build

After a slow post-pandemic start, the office-to-resi conversion pipeline is getting rolling. At the start of the year there are over 70,000 residential units in the nationwide conversion pipeline according to ResiClub.

It’s not totally surprising it took this long; office distress takes some time to work through the market, and even the most depressed buildings can take time to fully vacate for a conversion. But it’s now clear that office conversions will be a larger part of the multifamily landscape in years to come.

Upcoming Thesis Driven Courses & Classes

Sharpen your real estate IQ on capital raising, selling into real estate owners, developing local real estate projects, and more.

Upcoming Courses

• February 10: Fundamentals of CRE (💻 Online): A bootcamp providing an insider’s view of “a day in the life” of key industry stakeholders, with real-world insights and applications - Sign up

• February 24: Fundamentals of Capital Raising (💻 Online): Insider’s guide to raising capital for real estate projects & platforms–from individuals, family offices and institutional investors - Sign up

• February 24: Introduction to Development (💻 Online): A first-person POV simulation for aspiring developers to learn to source, underwrite and finance a local real estate project - Sign up

• February 24: Selling Into Real Estate Owners (💻 Online): A bootcamp for people selling technology and products into the real estate industry - Sign up

• March 4 & 5: Fundamentals of CRE (🗽Live in NYC): A bootcamp providing an insider’s view of “a day in the life” of key industry stakeholders, with real-world insights and applications - Sign up

• March 18 & 19: Fundamentals of Capital Raising (🗽Live in NYC): Insider’s guide to raising capital for real estate projects & platforms–from individuals, family offices and institutional investors - Sign up

Thesis Driven Classes—1-hour micro courses on specific topics—are now available on Eventbrite here!

Three Articles We Loved from Last Week

It’s not easy keeping up with everything. Here are three articles we loved from the past week that you may have missed:

1. (New York Post) Inside the Former Drab Office Spaces Giving Way to Breathtakingly Beautiful Apartments in NYC and Beyond

   Cities like New York, Washington, D.C., and Chicago are witnessing a surge in converting outdated office buildings into modern residential apartments. In 2025, New York leads with 8,310 units set for conversion, a 59% increase from the previous year. Notable projects include luxury apartments at 55 Broad Street and the extensive transformation of 25 Water Street. These conversions address housing demand while preserving architectural heritage, though challenges like ensuring adequate natural light persist.

2. (Reuters) Fed Releases 2025 Bank Stress Test Scenarios

   The Federal Reserve announced its 2025 bank stress test scenarios, emphasizing severe downturns in commercial and residential real estate markets. Projections include a 5.9% rise in unemployment to 10%, a 33% decline in home prices, and a 30% drop in commercial real estate values. The tests also feature an exploratory component assessing shocks in the non-bank sector and potential impacts from large hedge funds on major banks.

3. (The U.S. Sun) Shoppers Feel ‘Gut Punch’ as Walmart Confirms Purchase of Beloved Mall with Plans to ‘Reimagine’ the Property

   Walmart has acquired Monroeville Mall in Pennsylvania for $34 million, intending to “reimagine” the property in collaboration with developer Cypress Equities. While specific plans are pending, options include partial or full demolition. The mall, operational since 1969 and a cultural landmark as the filming location for “Dawn of the Dead,” holds significant sentimental value for locals, leaving many concerned about its future.

Developer of the Week

Canadian developer Great Gulf is embarking on an ambitious project to build the east coast’s largest ski village in Killington, Vermont. After purchasing over 1,000 slopeside acres in 2023, Great Gulf aims to eventually build more than 2,300 residential units alongside retail, hospitality, and more.

You can check out Great Gulf on Thesis Driven’s developer database here.

Know about a developer doing something cool that we should feature? Reach out to [email protected] with the tip!

—Brad and Paul