👑 $100M+ homes dominated 2025
📉 CRE supply hits decade-low
🇭🇰 Hong Kong doubles down on housing land
📚 January Workshops: 2026 Business Models & Trends, Selling into CRE, Family Office Fundraising

Data Viz of the Week: A Historic Drop in Homicides

In the coming weeks, hundreds of local papers and news stations will tout impressive statistics showing their city got markedly safer in 2025. But local politicians shouldn't claim credit: the recent drop in homicides is significant and nationwide.

At this point, the drivers of this decline are entirely speculative. But the shift is real: while some claim declines in property crime are due to a lack of reporting, all local agencies report homicide data to the FBI, making this data more reliable.

Upcoming Thesis Driven Courses & Classes

• 📣 LAST CALL - January 9th: Workshop: Evaluating Emerging Real Estate Business Models  (💻 Online): A two-day interactive workshop exploring how we at Thesis Driven evaluate emerging real estate business models—and some of the best opportunities we see for 2026 - $99

• January 12th: 5-Week Course: Master Selling into Real Estate Owners (💻 Online): A 5-week bootcamp for people selling technology and products into the real estate industry - $1,299

• January 14-15: Workshop: Raising Capital from Family Office (💻 Online): ​A two-day interactive workshop designed for real estate sponsors, entrepreneurs, and capital raisers looking to raise capital from family offices. - $499

Three Articles We Loved from Last Week

It’s not easy keeping up with everything. Here are three articles we loved from the past week that you may have missed:

1. (CoStar) U.S. Commercial Real Estate Deliveries Fall to Lowest Level Since 2013

   New U.S. commercial real estate deliveries have dropped to their lowest level in more than a decade, reflecting the sharp pullback in development activity following higher interest rates, tighter construction financing, and elevated building costs. Across most major asset classes—particularly office, multifamily, and retail—developers have delayed or shelved new projects, leading to a materially thinner supply pipeline. While demand patterns continue to shift unevenly by sector and market, the slowdown in new deliveries could help stabilize fundamentals for existing assets and set the stage for rent growth once demand normalizes.

2. (NY Post) Ultra-Luxury Real Estate Sales Hit New Heights in 2025

   Despite a broader slowdown in the U.S. housing market, the ultra-luxury segment exploded in 2025, with all of the top ten home sales topping $100 million — up from just five such deals in 2023. Florida led the way with six of the ten biggest transactions, including a $225 million sale in Naples, while high-net-worth buyers snapped up trophy homes in Colorado, California and New York, signaling persistent demand at the very top of the market

3. (Reuters) Hong Kong Expects More Private Housing Land Supply as Market Outlook Brightens

   Hong Kong’s government says private land supply for housing in the 2025/26 financial year is expected to exceed initial targets by around 20%, potentially unlocking land for roughly 16,000 residential units. Officials described improving sentiment among developers and a slight uptick in home prices as evidence of market stabilization after years of downturn tied to high mortgage rates and weak demand. Commercial land sales remain paused amid continued soft demand for office space.

Developer of the Week: Oak Row Equities

The New York and Miami based Oak Row Equities, led by David Weitz and Erik Rutter, partnered with OKO Group and Mariposa Real Estate to acquire a 4.25-acre bayfront assemblage in Brickell for $520 million, the largest development site transaction ever recorded in South Florida. 

The site—currently home to the Brickell Bay Office Tower and Yacht Club Apartments—is slated for a hotel and branded condominium project.

While Oak Row has historically focused on high-end multifamily, the Brickell deal marks its first known partnership with OKO and signals a deeper push into ultra-luxury, mixed-use development. 

You can read more about Oak Row on the Thesis Driven GP database here.

Know about a developer doing something cool? Reach out to [email protected] with the tip!

Investor of the Week: Palatine Capital Partners

Broadreach Capital Partners is a real estate investment and operating firm focused on the development, acquisition, and asset management of commercial and hotel properties primarily in the western United States. Established in 2002, the firm leverages more than four decades of industry experience across entitlement, ground-up development, acquisition, repositioning, and property management to generate risk-adjusted returns for its investors.

Broadreach has invested across a range of commercial property types, with notable exposure to office buildings, hotel and lodging assets, mixed-use developments, and other income-oriented real assets. The firm’s principals have overseen the acquisition and operation of more than $10 billion of office and hotel properties, developed over $3.5 billion of commercial and hospitality projects, and managed more than 70 million square feet of commercial space across decades. 

Examples from Broadreach’s track record include strategic repositioning and renovation of landmark assets such as The Carlyle Hotel in New York City, where the team executed a successful renovation and repositioning before selling to a global hospitality operator, as well as large-scale office acquisitions and development activity in markets such as Portland and Silicon Valley. 

Get more details on Broadreach Capital Partners, including team contacts, deal activity, and investment preferences, inside the CapitalStack database.

—Brad and Paul