(The Real Deal) The Reuben Brothers’ self-described “black sheep” steps up

Can billionaire scion David Reuben Jr. transform LA’s $2.5B Century Plaza into a vibrant urban oasis—or is it just his high-stakes bid to escape the ‘nepo baby’ shadow?

• The Project

  • The Century Plaza development includes a historic Fairmont hotel, two luxury condo towers, high-end rentals, and retail spaces.

  • Reuben Jr. inherited the project after his father and uncle foreclosed on the previous developer, who defaulted on $1.8 billion in debt.

• Challenges:

  • Condo sales have been slow, with only 32% of units sold due to market headwinds, such as LA’s Measure ULA property tax.

  • Retail spaces remain underutilized, though some high-profile leases have been secured, including restaurants and a Tony Robbins-backed wellness clinic.

• Reuben Jr.’s Approach:

  • Drawing on his background in retail leasing, Reuben Jr. has focused on curating high-end dining and lifestyle experiences.

  • He relocated to one of the project’s condo towers to embody the lifestyle he aims to sell.

• Personal Struggles and Family Dynamics:

  • Reuben Jr. has faced scrutiny as a “nepo baby” and has worked to assert his capabilities, often deferring to his family in interviews.

  • Despite his deference, he views Century Plaza as an opportunity to demonstrate his leadership and earn a more prominent role in the family business.

• Broader Context

  • The Reuben Brothers’ $15.6 billion empire spans diverse global assets, including London real estate, data centers, and hospitality.

  • Their recent aggressive U.S. expansion underscores their ambition to solidify their presence in the American market.

Conclusion: David Reuben Jr.’s leadership of Century Plaza is a litmus test for his abilities and the viability of high-rise mixed-use developments in LA. While challenges remain, including sluggish condo sales and the pressure of family legacy, Reuben Jr. sees this project as a pivotal moment to prove his value as an executive and as part of his family’s next generation of leadership.

Data Viz of the Week: Population Growth Since 2010

Lots of analyses of population change use “Net Domestic Migration” as a proxy for growth. But it’s actually quite different than simply looking at raw population change which factors in births, deaths, and international migration.

When one looks at actual population change over the past fourteen years, only three states are net losers: Illinois, West Virginia, and Mississippi. The top gainers are Texas, Florida, and California.

(Business Insider) Spurned real estate star plans late career revival powered by AI

NYC brokerage legend Bob Knakal is betting on AI to fuel his stunning career comeback—can the king of deals revolutionize real estate once again?”

• The Comeback Plan:

  • Knakal has launched BKREA, a boutique brokerage integrating artificial intelligence to streamline processes, analyze data, and enhance deal-making efficiency.

  • He is leveraging decades of proprietary property data to differentiate BKREA in a competitive market.

• Embracing AI in Real Estate:

  • Knakal views AI as a tool to democratize access to data and provide smaller firms with a competitive edge.

  • He envisions AI enhancing everything from valuation accuracy to identifying overlooked investment opportunities.

• Recent Successes:

  • Despite his departure from JLL, Knakal has secured $2 billion in property sales under BKREA, underscoring his resilience and ability to deliver results.

  • He’s focusing on high-value deals, continuing his legacy as one of NYC’s top brokers.

• Challenges and Determination:

  • Knakal acknowledges the challenges of starting anew but is confident that his experience, relationships, and adoption of cutting-edge technology will set him apart.

  • His pivot to AI reflects his commitment to staying relevant and competitive in an evolving real estate landscape.

• The Legacy of a Pioneer:

  • Known for selling more NYC properties than anyone in history, Knakal has built a reputation for creative deal-making and tenacity.

  • BKREA marks his effort to create a more modern and efficient brokerage model.

Conclusion: Bob Knakal’s career revival highlights his ability to adapt and innovate. By combining his wealth of experience with AI-powered tools, he’s positioning BKREA as a cutting-edge player in the competitive world of real estate brokerage. This bold reinvention serves as a testament to Knakal’s resilience and forward-thinking approach in an industry undergoing rapid transformation.

Upcoming Thesis Driven Courses & Classes

Sharpen your real estate IQ on capital raising, selling into real estate owners, developing local real estate projects, and more.

• January 13: Selling Into Real Estate Owners (💻 Online): A bootcamp for people selling technology and products into the real estate industry - Sign up

• January 14-15: Fundamentals of Capital Raising (🗽Live in NYC): Insider’s guide to raising capital for real estate projects & platforms–from individuals, family offices and institutional investors - Sign up

• January 28-29: Introduction to Development (🗽Live in NYC): A first-person POV simulation for aspiring developers to learn to source, underwrite and finance a local real estate project - Sign up

• February 10: Fundamentals of CRE (💻Online): A bootcamp providing an insider’s view of “a day in the life” of key industry stakeholders, with real-world insights and applications - Sign up 

Thesis Driven Classes—1-hour micro courses on specific topics—are coming soon!

(NY Post) Historic NYC office building fetches a fraction of its recent $245M sale price

Manhattan’s iconic 470 Park Avenue South sells for nearly $100M less than in 2018 thanks to high vacancy and continued uncertainty in the office market.

• Sale Details:

  • The iconic office building, once valued at $245 million in 2018, sold for $147.5 million—a nearly $100 million drop in value.

• Factors Behind the Price Drop:

  • Rising interest rates have increased borrowing costs, leading to declining real estate valuations.

  • Manhattan’s office market continues to face distress due to remote work trends, shifting tenant preferences, and higher vacancy rates.

• Market Context:

  • While the office market is struggling, some owners are repositioning distressed assets to attract tenants by modernizing spaces and offering competitive leasing terms.

• The Path Forward:

  • The new owners aim to revamp the building and attract tenants with asking rents of $70–$80 per square foot, signaling optimism despite the headwinds.

Conclusion: The sale of 470 Park Avenue South underscores the pressures on Manhattan’s office market, with declining property values and high vacancy rates. However, the buyer’s plans to modernize and lease the space reflect a strategy to capitalize on future recovery and redefined tenant needs.

Developer of the Week

Each week, we feature a different real estate GP doing something special.

This week, our featured developer is Urban Pacific. They’re the largest developers of multigenerational housing—in which more than three generations of family members live in one home—in the United States. Check out founder Scott Choppin’s interview in Thesis Driven!

Check them out here on the Thesis Driven database!

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