The Thesis Driven TL;DR | Week of July 13

Everything you need to know about real estate in one little email

πŸ€– Anthropic Signs $19B Data Center Lease in Rural Kentucky
πŸ—οΈ LA Approves $2B Mixed-Use Megaproject on Edge of Skid Row
πŸ“‰ Apartment Construction Pipeline Hits Decade Low
Upcoming Workshops: πŸ—ΊοΈ Using AI to Find Land

Data Viz of the Week: Newer Homes, More Prosperity

New data from the Economic Innovation Group draws a straight line between the age of a community's housing and its economic health. Plotting the median home-build year against the Distressed Communities Index, the pattern is unmistakable: the most prosperous zip codes (bottom 20% of the DCI) have housing stock built, on average, in the 1980s and 1990sβ€”some as recently as 1994. 

The most distressed communities? Their median home dates to the early 1970s. Prosperity tracks tightly with newer construction, distress with older. 

Upcoming Thesis Driven Workshops

  • Wednesday, July 15: Using AI to Find Land (πŸ’» Online): ​​An interactive workshop for ground-up developers who want to find better sites, faster, using modern software and AI tools. - $299

  • Thursday, July 16: AI for Real Estate Lawyers (πŸ’» Online): ​​An interactive workshop for real estate attorneys, in-house counsel, paralegals, and legal teams exploring how AI is reshaping transactional practice, from due diligence to closing. - $299

  • Wednesday, July 22: Raising and Structuring Programmatic Joint Ventures (πŸ’» Online): A tactical workshop on finding the right JV partner, structuring the deal, and negotiating operator-friendly terms. - $299

  • Thursday, July 23: AI for CRE Brokers (πŸ’» Online): How top-producing brokers are using AI to build their brand, win more pitches, and source deals their competitors can’t find. - $499

Three Articles We Loved from Last Week

It’s not easy keeping up with everything. Here are three articles we loved from the past week that you may have missed:

  1. (CNBC) TeraWulf Shares Soar After Anthropic Leases Data Center in Kentucky AI company Anthropic signed a 20-year lease with TeraWulf for a purpose-built 401-megawatt data center campus in Hawesville, Kentucky β€” a rural Ohio River town about an hour southwest of Louisville β€” in a deal initially expected to generate roughly $19 billion in revenue over the life of the lease. The "Justified Data Campus" will be developed in phases, with first power delivery in the second half of 2027 and full capacity by early 2028. The facility sits on a former crypto mining site, and the deal underscores how AI infrastructure demand is reshaping not just gateway markets but entire rural economies β€” Hawesville's population is under 1,000.

  2. (The Real Deal) LA City Council Approves $2B Mixed-Use Redevelopment of DTLA Industrial Site After a five-year entitlement fight that included environmental challenges, neighborhood opposition, a zone change, and a major redesign, the Los Angeles City Council gave final approval to Fourth & Central, a $2 billion, 2.3 million-square-foot mixed-use development on 7.6 acres at the eastern edge of downtown. The 10-building complex will replace the Los Angeles Cold Storage facility with 1,589 apartments (including 262 affordable units), roughly 400,000 square feet of office space, 145,000 square feet of retail, and 2 acres of public open space. The tallest tower was reduced from 44 to 30 stories during the review process.

  3. (CBRE) Multifamily Vacancy Rate Falls Amid Rebounding Demand, but Pipeline Hits Decade Low Annual apartment deliveries are projected to drop 36% in 2026 to approximately 333,000 units β€” the lowest total since 2014 β€” as the construction pipeline contracts more than 50% from its Q1 2023 peak of 1.18 million units under construction to roughly 579,000. The national vacancy picture is starkly uneven: Hartford and New Haven sit below 1%, while Sarasota (17.6%), Huntsville (17.4%), and San Antonio (15.8%) are still working through a supply glut. The data is setting up a potential supply crunch by 2028 in markets where starts have dried up, just as today's excess completions are absorbed.

Developer of the Week: Avery Hall

Brooklyn-based Avery Hall purchased a stalled Crown Heights hotel development site out of bankruptcy from Yoel Goldman, with plans to build a 173,000-square-foot residential building containing 250 units. The acquisition represents a classic distressed-asset play in a neighborhood that has seen sustained rental demand.

Avery Hall has built a reputation in New York City as a developer willing to take on complicated, encumbered sites that others pass on. The Crown Heights deal reflects a broader trend of opportunistic developers acquiring stalled or bankrupt projects at a discount as the original sponsors of 2021–2023 vintage deals run out of runway. With 75 taxpayer-subsidized units planned for lottery distribution, the project also aligns with city housing goals, potentially unlocking tax incentives under the new 485-x framework.

You can read more about Avery Hall on the Thesis Driven GP database here.

The stalled site at 1550 Bedford Av in Brooklyn, NY

Investor of the Week: Fillmore

Fillmore Capital Partners (FCP) is a Powell, OH-based SEC-registered investment adviser founded in 2003 by Ronald Silva, a 30-year veteran of institutional real estate who previously served as EVP at Lowe Enterprises overseeing $2B+ in contributed equity. FCP has deployed over $9.5 billion in gross investments since inception across two core verticals β€” community-based healthcare and hospitality/consumer-centric essential real estate β€” executing through its own named operating affiliates rather than as passive capital. The firm manages $247M in RIA assets and runs closed-end funds and custom separate accounts for institutional and public pension LPs, with typical check sizes of $20–50M per transaction across the capital structure (equity, preferred equity, mortgage debt, and private credit).

FCP's most prominent healthcare play is Scioto Properties, an affiliate where Silva sits on the board, which has grown into the nation's largest real estate owner and lessor to residential care providers serving individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities, behavioral health conditions, and traumatic brain injuries. Scioto now controls over 2,200 properties across 40+ states and closed a record $80M, 277-property portfolio acquisition in September 2024, followed by $50M+ in acquisitions in just the first five months of 2025. Hospitality accounts for roughly 40% of FCP's gross investments, with direct hotel and resort acquisitions that lean on the same operating-intensive, fundamentals-first approach. The firm targets opportunistic and special-situations assets with hold periods of five years or less, seeking returns through operational improvement and monetization rather than leverage or cap-rate compression.

Get more details on Fillmore, including team contacts, deal activity, and investment preferences, inside the CapitalStack database.

β€”Brad and Paul