🇸🇦 Saudi PIF backs $1B Manhattan tower as office market shows strength (WSJ)
🏭 Warehouse boom taps the brakes: vacancy spikes, but rents stay resilient (WSJ)
🤠 Big trouble in Texas multifamily (The Real Deal)
📚 Upcoming courses for CRE Fundamentals & AI

Data Viz of the Week: The Seven States Gaining Young People

As birth rates sag, a majority of US states are losing young people. The exceptions? Seven states have seen their under-18 populations grow by more than 1% since 2020.

Five of them are Sunbelt darlings: North and South Carolina, Tennessee, Florida, and Texas. Idaho joins them, boosted by Boise's rapid growth and high fertility among LDS residents. 

One surprising addition? Delaware. While Acela and I-95 travelers may not think much of Wilmington, the state's southern half is rapidly adding housing and new families.

Upcoming Thesis Driven Courses & Classes

• July 21: Fundamentals of Commercial Real Estate (💻 Online): A bootcamp providing an insider’s view of “a day in the life” of key industry stakeholders, with real-world insights and applications - Sign up

• July 29-30: Workshop: AI in Real Estate (💻 Online): A two-day interactive workshop for real estate owners, operators, and developers exploring how to use AI in the sector - Sign up

Three Articles We Loved from Last Week

It’s not easy keeping up with everything. Here are three articles we loved from the past week that you may have missed:

1. (WSJ) Saudi Arabia’s PIF invests in Manhattan $1B office skyscraper

   The Saudi Public Investment Fund has taken a two‑thirds stake in a premium Midtown Manhattan site with plans for a 1,200‑ft, $1 billion office tower, marking renewed foreign investment as NYC office leasing rebounds to pre‑pandemic levels.

2. (WSJ) Warehouse vacancies hit highest level in 10+ years

   U.S. warehouse vacancy rates climbed to 7.1% in Q2 2025 — the highest since 2014 — driven by tariff uncertainty, overbuilding during the pandemic and record levels of subleased space. Yet average rents continue rising due to long-term occupancy strategies.

3. (The Real Deal) Texas’ biggest CRE loans headed to foreclosure in June

   Over $500 million worth of CRE loans in Texas—mostly post‑pandemic multifamily—are scheduled for auction this month as rising rates and falling valuations spark distress across major metros like Houston and Dallas.

Developer of the Week: Penn-Florida

Grant Cardone? Bankruptcy Sale? Condo Conversion in Boca?  

This week's Developer of the Week is Penn-Florida Companies, whose joint venture with Grant Cardone received approval last week to proceed with a $235 million purchase of their own distressed 366-unit apartment building in Boca out of bankruptcy. 

Penn-Florida will be contributing a bit less than 10% ($15 million) to the JV with Cardone ponying up the rest. The JV plans to convert the building to condos.

You can read more about Penn-Florida on the Thesis Driven GP database here.

Know about a developer doing something cool? Reach out to [email protected] with the tip!

—Brad and Paul