The Thesis Driven TL;DR | Week of June 23rd

Everything you need to know about real estate in one little email

🥶 Financing freeze… CRE sentiment plunges amid tariff turbulence
🌴 Is the West Coast office market turning? Big-money bet from Cohen & Steers
🎉 Malls reinventing themselves with fitness, food, and fun as the new anchors
📚 Upcoming courses for Underwriting, Capital Raising, & OpCo-PropCo

Data Viz of the Week: Multifamily Construction Plummets

The multifamily construction boom is finally coming to an end.

While new multifamily starts have been declining since mid-2023, we've now seen several months of completions exceeding new starts, bringing the volume of construction underway back to more typical levels.

It remains to be seen whether this will have a cooling effect on construction costs despite risks from tariffs and immigration crackdowns.

Upcoming Thesis Driven Courses & Classes

  • June 30: Fundamentals of Underwriting (💻 Online): A bootcamp on real estate financial modeling & underwriting in an AI-enabled world - Sign up

  • July 7: OpCo-PropCo Workshop (💻 Online): A two-day workshop on structuring OpCo/PropCo businesses with a focus on real-world case studies - Sign up

  • July 14: Fundamentals of Capital Raising (💻 Online): Insider’s guide to raising capital for real estate projects & platforms–from individuals, family offices and institutional investors - Sign up

  • July 21: Fundamentals of Commercial Real Estate (💻 Online): A bootcamp providing an insider’s view of “a day in the life” of key industry stakeholders, with real-world insights and applications - Sign up

Three Articles We Loved from Last Week

It’s not easy keeping up with everything. Here are three articles we loved from the past week that you may have missed:

  1. (Reuters) CRE market sentiment dropped by most in Q1 since pandemic, survey finds

    CRE Finance Council survey revealed a 30% plunge in financing sentiment in Q1 2025—its steepest drop since COVID—largely due to new tariffs. 80% of investors expect tougher economic conditions, while 50% predict declining CRE fundamentals, though CMBS pipelines remain stable.

  2. (The Real Deal) Cohen & Steers buy $300 million in Hudson Pacific stock

    Cohen & Steers Capital Management scooped up $300 million of Hudson Pacific stock, signaling a bullish stance on a West Coast office recovery. The cash infusion is aimed at helping HPP pay down nearly $600 million in maturing debt and improve liquidity.

  3. (CRE Daily) Mall anchors evolve with visit‑focused strategies in 2025 

    The new generation of mall anchors is moving beyond traditional big-box and department stores. In 2025, top-performing centers are leasing to fitness studios, specialty dining, bookstores, and entertainment brands—designed to drive regular foot traffic and visitor engagement.

Developer of the Week: DAC Development

Chicago-based DAC Developments secured financing - including a $69 million construction loan - for a 19-story South Loop project at 626 S Wabash.

While the project is listed as 164 units, that likely doesn't tell the full story. In addition to 80 small studios and a few two-bedroom apartments, the project has 60 four-bedroom units. Given DAC's history in the coliving market, it is likely these units are designed with roommates in mind.

You can read more about DAC on the Thesis Driven GP database here.

Rendering of 626 S Wabash

Know about a developer doing something cool? Reach out to [email protected] with the tip!

—Brad and Paul