The Thesis Driven TL;DR | Week of March 10th

Everything you need to know about real estate in one little email

🏭 Asian logistics giants double down on U.S. warehouses
💡 Office lights flicker back on in NYC
💰 Blackstone’s $8 billion fund signals a bullish turn in CRE debt
📚 Courses on capital raising, selling into CRE, LP investing & more

Data Viz of the Week: Economic Policy Uncertainty Hits New Highs

The Index of Economic Policy Uncertainty is a metric published by professors at Northwestern, University of Chicago, and Stamford, and it seeks to quantify the unpredictability of economic policies.

Recently the measure hit a new high not seen since the height of the COVID pandemic—and above the level seen during the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-9. It’s hard to know how this will impact real estate; on one hand, uncertainty tends to suppress investment like new development. On the other hand, investors often seek safety in real assets.

You can read more about the methodology here.

Upcoming Thesis Driven Courses & Classes

Sharpen your real estate IQ on capital raising, selling into real estate owners, developing local real estate projects, and more.

All Upcoming Courses

  • March 17: Fundamentals of CRE (💻 Online): A bootcamp providing an insider’s view of “a day in the life” of key industry stakeholders, with real-world insights and applications - Sign up

  • March 18 & 19: Fundamentals of Capital Raising (🗽Live in NYC): Insider’s guide to raising capital for real estate projects & platforms–from individuals, family offices and institutional investors - Sign up

  • March 31: Selling Into Real Estate Owners (💻 Online): A bootcamp for people selling technology and products into the real estate industry - Sign up

  • March 31: Fundamentals of Capital Raising (💻 Online): Insider’s guide to raising capital for real estate projects & platforms–from individuals, family offices and institutional investors - Sign up

  • April 7: Introduction to Development (💻 Online): A first-person POV simulation for aspiring developers to learn to source, underwrite and finance a local real estate project - Sign up

  • April 8 & 9: Fundamentals of LP Investing (🗽Live in NYC): A bootcamp for individual investors providing the institutional playbook to access, evaluate, and structure direct real estate investments - Sign up

Three Articles We Loved from Last Week

It’s not easy keeping up with everything. Here are three articles we loved from the past week that you may have missed:

  1. (Associated Press) Why Asian logistics operators are leasing more US warehouses

    Asian logistics companies are increasingly leasing warehouse spaces across the United States to better manage the surge in e-commerce and global trade. This trend is particularly evident in major logistics hubs like New Jersey and Los Angeles, where leasing activities by Asia-based firms doubled in 2024 compared to the previous year. Factors such as the complexity of international trade, the de minimis exemption allowing direct-to-consumer shipping from Asia, and the need for faster delivery times are driving this shift. Notably, Chinese and other Asian e-commerce companies accounted for 20% of new warehouse leases through the third quarter of 2024, highlighting their strategic move to position inventory closer to U.S. consumers.

  2. (Reuters) New York Workers’ Return to Office Ignites Deal Hopes in Battered Real Estate Market

    As companies encourage employees to return to the office, investors, including Blackstone and high-net-worth individuals, are showing renewed interest in New York office properties. This trend suggests a potential recovery in the commercial real estate market, with increased demand for top-quality offices signaling broader economic revival in major cities. Notable developments include Amazon seeking additional space and Citadel developing a 62-story skyscraper in New York due to space shortages. Despite this optimism, challenges persist for older Class B and C buildings.

  3. (Wall Street Journal) Blackstone Raises Largest Commercial Property Debt Fund With $8 Billion Haul

    Blackstone has successfully closed an $8 billion commercial real estate debt fund, marking one of the largest of its kind. This achievement underscores a resurgence in the property market, with debt funds emerging as significant nonbank lenders post-global financial crisis. Despite challenges in raising capital due to high interest rates since 2022, Blackstone managed to gather funds over two years. The fund focuses on making property loans, purchasing existing loans, and partnering with banks, leveraging current market conditions to capitalize on opportunities in the commercial real estate debt sector

Developer of the Week: Savanna

Among the biggest real estate deals of last week was the $380 million construction loan developer Savanna landed for their first South Florida project: the two-tour, 26-story, 457-unit Olara in West Palm Beach.

Olara is aiming to ride on the wellness trend to attract condo buyers with amenities that include a juice bar, two pools, a spa, a Japanese onsen, and a 13,000 square foot fitness center.

Check out Savanna on the Developer Database to learn more.

Part of the Xchange campus that Shorenstein recently purchased

Know about a developer doing something cool that we should feature? Reach out to [email protected] with the tip!

—Brad and Paul