The Thesis Driven TL;DR | Week of March 9th

Everything you need to know about real estate in one little email

🏢 Amazon slashing millions of SF of office
🪙 Coinbase bets big on NYC office
🚨 Walker & Dunlop uncovers $134M fraud
🔧 Upcoming Workshops: LinkedIn Strategy for GPs, Using AI to Find Land
📚 Upcoming Courses: Fundamentals of Real Estate Development

Data Viz of the Week: We’re All Less Happy Now

University of Chicago's General Social Survey recorded the largest drop in happiness in its 52-year history in the years following the pandemic: fewer Americans than ever describe themselves as "very happy."

In particular, income is no longer so tightly correlated with happiness: top income earners experienced the greatest drop in happiness across categories. But the malaise is hitting everyone to varying degrees.

Upcoming Thesis Driven Courses & Workshops

  • 📣 LAST CALL - March 11: Workshop: LinkedIn Strategy for GPs (💻 Online): A live, practical workshop for real estate GPs, operators, and fund managers who want to use LinkedIn intentionally—as a capital formation tool, not a vanity channel - $299

  • March 19: Workshop: Using AI to Find Land (💻 Online): An interactive workshop for ground-up developers who want to find better sites, faster—using modern software and AI tools - $299

  • March 23: Course: Fundamentals of Real Estate Development (💻 Online): A five-week ​bootcamp for aspiring real estate entrepreneurs that simulates the underwriting, design and financing of a local real estate project - $1,299

  • March 26: Workshop: AI in Architecture, Engineering & Construction (💻 Online): An interactive workshop for owners, operators, developers, architects, and builders exploring how AI is reshaping the AEC stack—from design to delivery.- $299

  • March 26-27: Workshop: Raising Capital from Family Offices (💻 Online): A two-day interactive workshop designed for real estate sponsors, entrepreneurs, and capital raisers looking to raise capital from family offices - $299

Three Articles We Loved from Last Week

It’s not easy keeping up with everything. Here are three articles we loved from the past week that you may have missed:

  1. (Bisnow) Amazon Plans to Shave Millions of Square Feet Off Its Office Footprint Amazon is preparing to eliminate 49,000 desks — roughly 14 million square feet — from its global office portfolio, aiming to cut average office vacancy from around 31% to just under 23%. The move comes as CEO Andy Jassy pivots hard toward AI, with the company expected to spend approximately $200 billion on AI initiatives in 2026. Amazon plans to let leases expire, sublease excess space, and "hibernate" lightly used offices — though it will also add roughly 1.8M SF in select markets, suggesting a geographic reshuffling rather than a blanket retreat.

  2. (Bisnow) Coinbase to Expand NYC Office Into 1,000-Worker Research Hub Coinbase announced it will invest $30M to expand its office at SL Green's One Madison Avenue, adding more than 630 R&D jobs and bringing its total New York headcount to over 1,000. The expansion — backed by a $5M Excelsior Tax Credit from Empire State Development — marks a significant reversal for a company that declared itself "remote first" in 2020 and abandoned its San Francisco headquarters a year later. The company plans to pour $750M annually into R&D, with New York becoming its East Coast hub for institutional and regulatory operations.

  3. (The Real Deal) Walker & Dunlop Reveals It Found $134M of Fraud Walker & Dunlop dismissed members of its banking staff after an internal investigation uncovered roughly $134M in fraudulent Freddie Mac loans across three portfolios. The company recorded a $29M loss expense and brought its findings to Freddie Mac in January. The team in question was led by former senior managing director Jared Sobel, who has since departed the firm. Further diligence on 266 additional loans originated by the team turned up another $34M in borrower misrepresentation.

Developer of the Week: Red Oak Investments

The LA City Council has upheld approval of a mixed-use project at 1280 Pacific Coast Highway in Harbor City from Red Oak Investments, an Orange County-based developer.

The six-story building will include 354 apartments and ~1,500 sq ft of commercial space, replacing the A-1 Trailer Park. Of those units, 42 will be deed-restricted affordable housing at the very low-income level — matching the number of existing mobile homes — with current residents offered right-of-return eligibility. Designed by VTBS Architects, the project features two central courtyards and a rooftop terrace.

You can read more about Red Oak Investments on the Thesis Driven GP database here.

Know about a developer doing something cool? Reach out to [email protected] with the tip!

Rendering of 1280 Pacific Coast Highway in Los Angeles, CA

Investor of the Week: Drawbridge Realty

Drawbridge Realty is a private real estate investment manager exclusively focused on U.S. net lease assets, deploying commingled capital into long-duration, credit-driven sale-leaseback and build-to-suit real assets. Founded in 2008 and headquartered in San Francisco, the firm has raised $4B+ in capital commitments and completed over 300 investments spanning 30+ U.S. states. Drawbridge partners with KKR and Global Atlantic, which recapitalized the firm's approximately $1.7B innovation-focused office portfolio in 2022 with committed long-term insurance capital — a structure designed to fund acquisitions without traditional leverage.

Within real estate, Drawbridge focuses on industrial, office, R&D, and healthcare assets, all structured predominantly as triple-net leases that pass property-level expenses through to tenants. The firm's underwriting emphasizes tenant credit quality, long-term lease duration, and mission-critical occupancy — targeting buildings that tenants simply can't leave. A notable recent example is the firm's $78M acquisition of The HIVE in Costa Mesa, a 190K SF office campus fully leased to defense tech company Anduril Industries, and its $168.5M purchase of a Spring District property in Bellevue, WA secured by a long-term Meta lease. In 2025 alone, Drawbridge invested upward of $300M in new acquisitions and more than $20M in capital upgrades across its national portfolio, signaling continued conviction in credit-backed net lease as a durable strategy through volatile rate environments.

Get more details on Drawbridge Realty, including team contacts, deal activity, and investment preferences, inside the CapitalStack database.

—Brad and Paul