The Thesis Driven TL;DR | Week of September 8th

Everything you need to know about real estate in one little email

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Brad Hargreaves & Paul Stanton
September 08, 2025

🇯🇵 Nomura builds U.S. real estate platform with ex-Barclay execs
🏆 NYC’s trophy rental market catches fire
🏢 Small CA town divided over 243-unit apartment proposal
📚 NEW workshops & courses announced: AI, proptech M&A, OpCo-PropCo, and more

Data Viz of the Week: Peak College

This year is a demographic milestone: the US has the most 18 year olds it has ever had - or possibly will ever have. And that's a problem for colleges and universities.

As the latest echo of the Baby Boom fades, the number of 18 year olds in the US is expected to dramatically fall over the coming 3-5 years. While many colleges expected international students to come to the rescue and bridge the gap, that seems unlikely under the current administration.

While Top 100 colleges will be fine, marginal schools - particularly small liberal arts and religious colleges - are likely to go under in large numbers.

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Three Articles We Loved from Last Week

It’s not easy keeping up with everything. Here are three articles we loved from the past week that you may have missed:

  1. (Bisnow) Nomura builds U.S. real estate platform with ex-Barclays leaders

    Nomura is expanding into U.S. commercial real estate by forming a new platform led by former Barclays executives—targeting CRE, CMBS, and financing opportunities amid a shifting capital landscape.

  2. (The Real Deal) NYC’s trophy rental market catches fire

    Ultra-luxury rental properties in New York are seeing an unexpected boom, with affluent tenants seizing prized units despite economic headwinds. The high-end market is defying broader uncertainty.

  3. (WSJ) A six-story apartment building is tearing this small California town apart

    In Fairfax, CA, a proposed six-story, 243-unit apartment complex has triggered fierce community backlash. The project, set under aggressive housing mandates, has elevated tensions between local identity and regional housing needs.

Developer of the Week: Harvest Properties

More housing is coming to Silicon Valley.

Developer Harvest Properties and partner Stockbridge have acquired the former Visa headquarters campus in San Mateo, and they're planning to convert the site to 225 for-sale residential units - a mix of townhomes and detached single-family dwellings.

The move responds to both the Bay Area’s longstanding housing shortage—San Mateo added nearly 17,000 jobs but only 2,500 homes between 2002 and 2019
—and the persistent weakness in office demand, with the Peninsula market suffering seven straight quarters of negative net absorption.

You can read more about Harvest Properties on the Thesis Driven GP database here.

Know about a developer doing something cool? Reach out to [email protected] with the tip!

The Skanska tower in downtown Bellevue, WA

Investor of the Week: BDT & MSD

BDT & MSD Partners is the $50B+ merchant bank and investment platform formed in 2023 through the merger of Byron Trott’s BDT & Company and Michael Dell’s MSD Partners.

The combined firm manages capital for some of the world’s most prominent families and entrepreneurs, spanning private equity, credit, and real estate.

On the real estate side, MSD has over $11B under management, backing iconic assets like The Boca Raton and Four Seasons resorts alongside strategic hospitality and mixed-use platforms. With deep, patient capital and a mandate to partner directly with founders and families, BDT & MSD has become one of the most influential players at the intersection of family wealth and institutional real estate.

Get more details on BDT/MSD, including access to executive contacts, on the CapitalStack database here.

—Brad and Paul